The Ed Ponsi Forex Playbook Strategies and Trade Set Ups

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PART I Training Camp 1 CHAPTER 1 We Practice Like We Play 3 A Series of Habits 4 Rules to Live By 5 From the Minors to the Majors 5 Money on My Mind 7 CHAPTER 2 The Playing Field 9 Two of a Kind 9 The Manager 11 Under My Thumb 11 The Coaching Staff 12 A Team without a Manager 13 Other Notable Currencies 13 Commonly Traded Currency Pairs 13 Other Notable Currency Pairs 13 Who Decides? 13 Method to the Madness 15 Spot and Futures Markets 16 Let’s Get Physical 16 Continual Linked Settlement 16 CHAPTER 3 Calculations and Standardizations 19 Lot Size 19 Pip Value 20 Pip Calculation 21 First Currency = 1 21 vii P1: a/b P2: c/d QC: e/f T1: g fm JWBT297-Ponsi May 21, 2010 9:59 Printer: Yet to come viii CONTENTS Position: Long, Short, or Flat 22 Long One, Short the Other 23 The Chart Tracks the Base Currency 24 Margin Requirements 25 Leverage 26 CHAPTER 4 Follow the Money 29 Hot Stocks 29 Small Scale 30 Large Scale 30 Hot Commodities 31 Hot Real Estate 32 Differentials Make the Difference 32 “Mrs. Watanabe” 33 PART II Scoring Points 35 CHAPTER 5 Using the U.S. Dollar Index 37 Origin and History 38 Making Money 39 Confirmation 39 Contradiction 42 CHAPTER 6 Contrarian Indicators and the COT Report 47 The Sucker at the Table 47 Sifting Through the Newbies 48 Commitment of Traders Report 48 Commercials, Noncommercials, and Small Speculators 49 Reportable vs. Nonreportable Positions 49 Commercial Motivations 50 Noncommercials vs. Small Speculators 51 Surprise! 51 Against the Dollar 52 A Relentless Pounding 54 CHAPTER 7 The Power of Observation 59 Explaining Trig to a 6-Year-Old 59 Bad News, Good Reaction 60 Running for Cover 62 P1: a/b P2: c/d QC: e/f T1: g fm JWBT297-Ponsi May 21, 2010 9:59 Printer: Yet to come Contents ix Bigger Than the News 64 Capitalizing on Sentiment 64 The First Clue 65 Double Shot 66 Betting the House 67 The Prepared Mind 68 CHAPTER 8 Other People’s Money 71 Account Management 72 Limited Power 72 “One and Twenty” 73 Small Potatoes 73 Somewhat Larger Potatoes 75 LAMM and PAMM 75 Room to Grow 76 More Money, More Problems 77 Good Help Is Hard to Find 77 The Dark Side of Money Management 78 Madoff Scheme? 78 Final Thoughts on OPM 79 PART III Winning the Championship 81 CHAPTER 9 The Easiest Points You’ll Ever Score 83 Central Bank Intervention 83 The Bank of Japan, 2004 84 The Great Britain Pound, 1992 88 The Reserve Bank of Australia, 2008 92 The Russian Ruble, 2009 94 CHAPTER 10 Hitting It for Six 97 The Swiss National Bank, 2009 97 Pumping the Peso 100 A Second Chance 100 A Third Chance 100 A Fourth Chance 101 No Excuses 103 Teaching the Shorts a Lesson 103 No Fixed Threshold 104 The European Central Bank’s Role 105 P1: a/b P2: c/d QC: e/f T1: g fm JWBT297-Ponsi May 21, 2010 9:59 Printer: Yet to come x CONTENTS A Fifth Chance 106 The End of the Party 106 Not Exactly Breaking the Bank 107 Wrapping Up 108 CHAPTER 11 How to Trade Like a Hedge Fund 109 The Blind Leading the Blind 109 The Gunslinger Mentality 110 One Way to Emulate the Winners 110 Reward and Punishment 111 Perception of Changes in the Differential 112 Two Sides to the Coin 112 Another Possible Scenario 113 All Good Things Must End 113 CHAPTER 12 How to Trade Like a Rock Star 115 Case Study: GBP/JPY Carry Trade 115 FXEd and the Carry Trade 117 You’re Talking a Lot, But You’re Not Saying Anything! 118 Technicals and Fundamentals Line Up Together 120 Entry and Stop 121 Trade Like a Rock Star 123 Tightening Stops to Reduce Risk 124 Eliminating Risk 125 Staying in the Trade 126 Jumping Ahead 126 Always Tighten, Never Loosen 127 Close Call 128 Onward and Upward 128 CNBC Appearances 130 Pyramid Scheme 133 Why We Do It This Way 133 CHAPTER 13 Reach for the Sky 135 EUR/USD 2008 136 USD/CHF 2008 137 NZD/USD 2009 139 EUR/USD 2009 140 S&P 500 1996–2007 141 P1: a/b P2: c/d QC: e/f T1: g fm JWBT297-Ponsi May 21, 2010 9:59 Printer: Yet to come Contents xi CHAPTER 14 Seeing into the Future 145 Perpetuating the Cycle 146 The Really, Really Good Part 146 Future Projections 147 Interest Rate Futures 148 Fed Funds Futures 148 The Weather Report 149 Causing a STIR 150 Projecting Interest Income 151 Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worst 152 A “Columbo” Moment 153 A Bad Haircut 153 So Why Aren’t You Doing It? 154 PART IV Commitment to Excellence 155 CHAPTER 15 Purchasing Power Parity and the Big Mac Index 157 Strange But True 157 Greasy Transaction 158 King of the World 159 A Random Item 159 Help Is on the Way 159 Gustav Cassel 161 Naked in a Parking Lot 162 Time Horizon 163 CHAPTER 16 ‘‘Should I Go Long the Lobster, or the Filet Mignon?’’ 165 Quantitative Easing 165 Inverse Relationship 166 The Downside of Quantitative Easing 166 Hyperinflation 167 How to Lose Everything 167 Your Money’s No Good Here—Literally 168 Yes, It Can Happen Here 169 Here’s How They Get You 170 Self-Defense 171 P1: a/b P2: c/d QC: e/f T1: g fm JWBT297-Ponsi May 21, 2010 9:59 Printer: Yet to come xii CONTENTS CHAPTER 17 Swaps and Spreads 173 LIBOR Pains 173 Greasing the Wheels 174 The Dollar and the Yen 175 The TED Spread 176 Flight to Safety 178 Somewhat Predictable 179 Overnight Index Swap 181 A Brilliant Idea 181 LIBOR/OIS Spread 182 The Spread 182 CHAPTER 18 Alphabet Soup: The BIS, the IMF, and the OECD 185 Bank of International Settlements 185 Controversy and Conspiracy 186 BIS Survey 186 The IMF and the World Bank 188 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development 191 PART V Staying in Shape 195 CHAPTER 19 For Every Winner, a Loser? 197 Is Forex Trading a Zero-Sum Game? 197 A Winner and a Loser 198 Other Trading Scenarios 198 Closer to Zero-Sum 199 Multiplayer, Infinite Games 199 CHAPTER 20 Scam Avoidance Techniques 201 Dishonest from the Word “Go” 203 Summary 204 CHAPTER 21 Fire the Manager! 207 The Fed Rides to the Rescue! 208 Here I Come to Save the Day! 209 Adding Insult to Injury 209 P1: a/b P2: c/d QC: e/f T1: g fm JWBT297-Ponsi May 21, 2010 9:59 Printer: Yet to come Contents xiii A World Series Lesson 210 Is the Fed Legal? 211 Afterword 213 About the Author 215 Index 217

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The Ed Ponsi Forex Playbook Strategies and Trade Set Ups

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